As you know I made reference to Joe Mc Donald proclaiming on PRO BASEBALL CENTRAL last Thursday that the Mets will be a 90+ win team in 2010. His reasoning was that Oliver Perez will revert to his Good Ollie personality. I did say, it was encouraging news that OP, under the urging of both Scott Boras and Carlos Beltran, has spent the off season in Arizona, training hard to lose both the stigma of bring mentality and physically inept to pitch in the big leagues.
I’ve been looking around at the team as it now is constructed and have tried to make the case for 90 wins. It all starts of course with the pitching staff:
#1 Santana 15-17 wins
#2 Pelf/Joel Piniero/Bronson Arroyo/Aaron Harang/Gil Meche 10-12 wins
#3 Pelf/OP/Maine/Doug Davis/Jon Garland 8-10 wins
#4 one of the above at #3 8-10 wins
#5 Maine/Neise/Neve/Holt/Stoner/(Gulp!) Smoltz 8-10 wins
That comes to 49-59 wins from your starting rotation
Now from the seven relievers you figure will be in the pen:
Lefty to be named later
You figure you can and average of 4 wins from each. That’s an additional 28 wins, brining my projection to 77 to 87 wins.
Now say I leave the bullpen projection alone but I up the ante on the #2 pitcher to 12-14 wins and the #3 to 10-12 wins, that would put the team’ record between 81-91 wins. Of course all this is predicated on the Mets signing one of the remaining free agent pitchers, of which just Joel Piniero is desirable if he comes cheap or can trade for the one of the Arroyo/Harang/Meche troika.
So what do you think? Am I out of mind thinking there is a way the Mets could be a 90 win team and contend? Am I drinking the Omar/Jeffey Kool Aid? Has Joe Mac brainwashed me? Or am I just tired of freezing my ass off this winter and dying for spring and summer and baseball season? Could be the cold has made me delirious.