METS POWERBALL NUMBERS: 77, 81, 87, 91

As you know I made reference to Joe Mc Donald proclaiming on PRO BASEBALL CENTRAL last Thursday that the Mets will be a 90+ win team in 2010. His reasoning was that Oliver Perez will revert to his Good Ollie personality. I did say, it was encouraging news that OP, under the urging of both Scott Boras and Carlos Beltran, has spent the off season in Arizona, training hard to lose both the stigma of bring mentality and physically inept to pitch in the big leagues.

I’ve been looking around at the team as it now is constructed and have tried to make the case for 90 wins. It all starts of course with the pitching staff:

#1 Santana 15-17 wins

#2 Pelf/Joel Piniero/Bronson Arroyo/Aaron Harang/Gil Meche 10-12 wins

#3 Pelf/OP/Maine/Doug Davis/Jon Garland 8-10 wins

#4 one of the above at #3  8-10 wins

#5 Maine/Neise/Neve/Holt/Stoner/(Gulp!) Smoltz 8-10 wins

That comes to 49-59 wins from your starting rotation

Now from the seven relievers you figure will be in the pen:

Frankie Rodz

Ryoto Igarashi

Bobby Parnell

Kelvin Escobar

Sean Green

Pedro Feliciano

Lefty to be named later

You figure you can and average of 4 wins from each. That’s an additional 28 wins, brining my projection to 77 to 87 wins.

Now say I leave the bullpen projection alone but I up the ante on the #2 pitcher to 12-14 wins and the #3 to 10-12 wins, that would put the team’ record between 81-91 wins. Of course all this is predicated on the Mets signing one of the remaining free agent pitchers, of which just Joel Piniero is desirable if he comes cheap or can trade for the one of the Arroyo/Harang/Meche troika.

So what do you think? Am I out of mind thinking there is a way the Mets could be a 90 win team and contend? Am I drinking the Omar/Jeffey Kool Aid? Has Joe Mac brainwashed me?  Or am I just tired of freezing my ass off this winter and dying for spring and summer and baseball season? Could be the cold has made me delirious.

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Mets News and Views

Time again for Mets News and Views:

METS SET SIGHTS ON STARTING PITCHING

Music to my ears. I know most of you have a deep respect for wood a la Larry David, but without pitching you can have all the ash, maple and old hickory you want, you won’t win. Pitching wins period.

The top pitcher around that the Mets could get is Roy Halliday but the cost both player/prospect wise and money wise makes Halliday a dream that won’t come true. The next on the list is John Lackey, who is doable. Contract wise that is. If it takes an AJ Burnett 5yr/$82 mil deal to get Lackey here so be it. Sure he comes with a warning label as he hasn’t made over 30 starts in the last two seasons but the Mets are dessssssssssssperate for a #2 to Santana’s #1 and the they can piece together the rest of the rotation by adding two of the usual suspects from Jason Marquis, Joel Piniero, Randy Wolf, Jon Garland, and the coming off injuries, Ben Sheets, Erik Benard, and Noah Lowry, and my trade up specials Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Gil Meche to go with Mike Pelfrey as the 4th or 5th starter then and only then will progress be made in Flushing.

By the way I agree with this from Mack’s Mets to make John Maine the 8th inning set up man to Frankie Rodz and I would also make Ollie P a reliever as well and have Bobby Parnell and Perpetual Pedro Feliciano as my 7th inning mix and match set and throw Sean Green in for shits and giggles.

Nothing gets accomplished here until the pitching is squared away.

“WHAT THEY ACTUALLY LIKE THAT BLUE AND ORANGE STUFF”?

Can’t you just imagine, Jeffey Skill Set saying that? How out of touch can you be about your fan base and the history of the close to <places right pinky to right corner of mouth> $1 billion dollar baseball franchise he and his family own?

The Skill Sets had to be hit over the head by their fan base to paint the walls blue and orange, add a Mets Hall of Fame that even the great unwashed can gain entrance to, and go back to the uniform that the vast majority of Mets fans revere.

METS-MARLINS IN SAN JUAN, WHO NEEDS TWO?

So MLB wants the Mets and Marlins to play a series in San Juan which would be taken from the Marlins home schedule. Now how does this help the Marlins? The only time they get big crowds at Your Name Here Stadium is when the Mets come to town, plus with the construction of a new ball park shouldn’t the Marlins be trying build a better relationship with their fan base so they fill the new place once it’s up? The weird thing about the Marlins fans is they support the team very heavily through TV and Radio so maybe it doesn’t matter if they play in San Juan or San Quentin.

Also in this story there is a blurb about the Mets looking at signing Jack Cust. Hopefully it’s for a bartender’s job at the Acela Club.

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LOVE HIM OR HATE HIM YOU CAN’T IGNORE AARON HEILMAN

Great piece of writing by Howard Megdal in the New York Observer on making a case for putting Aaron Heilman into the starting rotation something I’ve advocated for the past two years. It’s so chi-chi for Mets fans to bash Heilman for his failures as a reliever and I’m not saying that it was unwarranted especially last year while I’m a Heilman fan he disappointed me greatly by not stepping up to grab the closer role when Billy Wags went down but maybe it was a bum knee or just that his mind set is always a starting pitcher mentality-and please don’t give me the horse shit refrain that he makes x ammount of money and should be grateful to be in baseball bromide that I am so sick of hearing, think about this on your job if your boss saw you cleaning up your work area and said “wow your so good at cleaning here’s a mop and do the bathroom” how would you react (me, I’d use the mop handle on him like it was a rectal thermometer)-Heilman lost out on a rotation spot in 2006 to Brian Bannister not because Bannister beat him out but due to the Mets wanting to keep both pitchers and with Heilman already in the bullpen the logic was to keep him there.

Think of how many rag armed pitchers have stepped on the Shea mound over Heilman and none of them with anything close to the talent of Heilman and I’m surprised he kept quiet this long.

As Megdal points out the free agent market for starting pitching will be insane especially if CC Sabathia stays true to his word and plays on the West Coast, the Highlanders and Red Sox will throw money around like they were hedge fund managers. I’m sure Sabathia will be getting phone or text messages from Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett and Ollie Perez to please take that Angels offer so they can’t become filthy rich.

So what would be so bad with keeping Heilman and Niese in the 4-5 spots and taking a flyer on Freddie Garcia or signing Jon Garland and spending that money saved on a payout or sweetener in trading Gimp Castillo and signing Orlando Hudson?

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